Development and Consideration of Global Policies
for Managing the Future Risks of Poliovirus Outbreaks: Insights and Lessons
Learned through Modeling
by Kimberly M. Thompson, Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens, Mark A. Pallansch, Olen
M. Kew, Roland W. Sutter, R. Bruce Aylward, Margaret Watkins, Howard Gary, James
P. Alexander, Linda Venczel, Denise Johnson, Victor M. Cáceres, Nalinee
Sangrujee, Hamid Jafari, Stephen L. Cochi, Risk Analysis 2006;26(6):1571-1580
Abstract
The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises
to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life
(i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation
of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers
manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine
(OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions
of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began
in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to
development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools
to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey
has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to
future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.
Answers to frequently asked questions
What are the study’s main findings?
What are the study’s main recommendations?
Background on polio
What are the study’s main findings?
- Risk analysts can play a key role in policy decisions by providing structure
that promotes shared understanding of the issues and key uncertainties.
- As part of the analytical journey of developing the decision analytic model
for post-eradication polio risk management policies and communicating its
results, the authors identified 5 main requirements that contributed to the
relative success of the collaboration to date:
1. establish a shared vision to guide collaboration,
2. survey, understand, and establish a close network with the experts and
the larger community of stakeholders,
3. develop effective communication and built-in capacity to adapt and respond
to changes in the program or system,
4. stay organized, focused on quality, and flexible, and
5. keep learning and asking good questions.
Back to questions
What are the study’s main recommendations?
- Analysts should strive to maintain living models that will support policies
as the process and science evolve.
- All collaborators need to appreciate that the process of developing an analytical
model to support decisions is at least as valuable as the final model.
Back to questions
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